2022 was a truly testing year for investors. A combination of factors transformed the global landscape. 2023 remains clouded in uncertainty but some principles may help investors to navigate the storm ahead.

Rarely through investment cycles has the future been so uncertain. The big debate for private investors is growth versus value stocks. Is it better to have cash in one’s pocket now, or wait for higher returns later? Roger presents a personal view of investment prospects for 2023.

Extracting full value from the myriads of data that engulf corporations today is the biggest challenge of our time for all aspiring digital leaders. The Data playbook for wine connoisseurs, sponsored by Hitachi Vantara,  provides practical guidance on architectures and frameworks for data mixologists

Dramatic changes in traffic patterns and platform technologies are demanding a radical rethink in the way infrastructures are designed and operated. This report, sponsored by Hitachi Vantara, summarised the views of twelve leading CIOs across the globe on how to adapt to a multi-cloud based world.

In view of the profound changes described in the full Hitachi-sponsored report on Next Generation Infrastructures – Clouded in Uncertainty, the author provides seven concrete steps to help CIOs and CTOs plot a realistic roadmap that will deliver aprropriate platforms for a data rich, digital economy

Deep dive interviews with twenty seven digital leaders from across Europe and the USA suggests five essential qualities that have enabled these ‘Master Chefs’ to attain professional high standing. These are 1. Curiosity, 2. Imagination, 3. Purposefulness, 4. Authenticity and 5. Dynamism.

The next social innovation will be the ‘Intelligent Era’. Advances in communication such as 5G and device intelligence such as IoT will help shift today’s agenda from ‘hyper-connectivity’ to ‘hyper-personalisation’  

Just imagine you are back in the 2000 dotcom boom. Could you foresee the rise of Big Tech then? Now look forward twenty years from 2021. We are all in for a big surprise. Join us on the 26^th January to discuss what lies ahead for 2022, 2030 and even 2040.

Just imagine you are back in the 2000 dotcom boom. Could you foresee the rise of Big Tech then? Now look forward twenty years from 2021. We are all in for a big surprise. Join us on the 26^th January to discuss what lies ahead for 2022, 2030 and even 2040.

Over five hundred years ago something dramatic happened that helped to launch the first European renaissance. A disruptive technology called the Gutenberg printing press enabled knowledge to be democratised, undermining the vice like grip of the Church over human thought and behaviour. Now we are witnessing the second renaissance in which the Internet is transforming every aspect of our lives, from our social and political agendas to the economic and technological underpinnings of global commerce. In this article, Roger shares his views about how our future might evolve over the coming 500 years.

The journey to enterprise automation has been long and largely unproductive. ERP, business process redesign and workflow automation have produced little to no productivity improvements over the last two decades. But are things about to change? CIONET’s recent report on emerging techniques such as robotic process automation, AI, and low code/no code suggest that a revolution is in the offing. Like the development of cloud over the last decade this is likely to become chaotic until the CIO exercise control over platforms and tools. The report interviews some twenty digital leaders to analyse where new automation tools are heading and how they might be harnessed

COVID-19 sent billions of workers home in March and created a unique opportunity to reimagine the way we perform work. In parallel,  rapid advances have been made in workplace automation through the application of artificial intelligence and machine learning. Taken together we expect to see fundamental changes in workflow, workforce and workplace in the coming years. This report contains interviews with over 25 ‘C’ suite executives who describe the many opportunities such advances can offer their organisations.

Managing personal savings and retirement funds has never been more difficult in these uncertain times. This report illustrates how individuals can take best advantage of current trends in global equity markets to produce double digital returns in 2021. It follows previous reports that have yielded 10-12% returns consistently over the past few years.

Up until this year the majority of large corporates have been pursuing a digital transformation agenda that has been about delivering operational excellence within the organisation. The recent pandemic has changed fundamentally the thrust of this effort by refocusing all investment on the customer journey. In this report we describe how Boards and CIOs have responded to the pandemic crisis by reducing the number of internal change projects and concentrating instead on seeking higher levels of agility and customer focus in order to face an uncertain future.

This paper summarises my research into the state of practice in business innovation, the desired ‘future state’, and the factors that both encourage and inhibit success in the process. I conclude with five actions that should enable companies to innovate more effectively.

Advances in 5G and in Satellite technologies over the next decade could bring a revolution in business comparable to the impact of M-commerce and social media in the consumer space over the last ten years. During the first half of 2018 Roger and his colleagues at the University of Surrey led a study to map out potential developments in a broad range of sectors, such as construction, farming, logistics, automotive and IT. The findings are published in this short but insightful report. 

Recent history shows that most large incumbent organisations are incapable of growing at a rate that exceeds inflation. Their only growth strategy is to buy back shares (aided by low interest rates) and consolidate. Attempts to improve the ‘core’ business through digital transformation only delivers small efficiency improvements. Innovation out at the ‘edge’ appears to produce few scalable entities. The report is a definitive study of innovation and how it is failing large organisations.

Recent history shows that most large incumbent organisations are incapable of growing at a rate that exceeds inflation. Their only growth strategy is to buy back shares (aided by low interest rates) and consolidate. Attempts to improve the ‘core’ business through digital transformation only delivers small efficiency improvements. Innovation out at the ‘edge’ appears to produce few scalable entities. The article is a definitive study of innovation and how it is failing large organisations.

Most of us are long term investors and need to look forward ten years or more. But taking the long view is difficult in an uncertain and rapidly changing world. However, there are some indicators that help in this critical endeavour. First is the advance of Tech that has superseded incumbent players in terms of growth and valuation. Then there are the emerging markets that contain most of the world’s population. The report gives a powerful commentary on such trends and provides a long term investor’s guide.

With US elections in sight and many other uncertain factors at a national (Brexit) and global (Middle East, China Trade Wars), investors should remain cautious at the tail end of the longest bull run in decades. Tech, emerging markets and small businesses remain my preferred assets although I am now willing to back the UK FTSE100 which is heavily undervalued (20% or more).

Awarded one of the first ARPA research fellowships for his work on today’s Internet (then referred to as the ARPANET), Roger Camrass undertook theoretical work with his professor, Robert G. Gallager whilst at MIT between 1974 and 1976. The research covered addressing information and proved that packet switching was the most efficient encoding algorithm for a distributed network. The thesis was published in the IEEE Transactions is 1978.

As the market for public cloud services begins to mature there are compelling reasons to adopt this new technology at both an IT and Business level. Speaking with some twenty senior decision makers in Europe and the USA, our report presents the way in which organisations such as Metro Bank and SCOPE are adopting cloud to transform IT effectiveness and business strategy

Data Mastery has become one of the key competencies of the digital age. Companies from all sectors seek to protect and exploit this valuable corporate asset, especially when competing with digital natives. This report examines the key factors that have elevated data mastery to be the key competence in the digital economy, and provides ample evidence that despite reassuring words, most ‘C’ suite executives are not reacting seriously to mastering data assets, both in their discovery, exploitation and protection.

This is a summary of my workshop on the role of culture in digital transformation, held in October 2017.

Why Boards are confused over the challenges of the digital economy and they can prepare for market leadership against digital natives

In the digital age the IT function is facing an existential threat. now is the time to act to maintain influence and control over digital events

The new digital era will enable small FinTech companies to flourish alongside incumbent players in new and challenging eco-systems.

Machine learning will begin to make sense of today’s data explosion and deliver multiple sources of commercial value in the coming years.

having enjoyed a ten year bull run - the longest in 50 years, who knows what might be in store for investors in 2017?

A comprehensive survey of eleven sectors and over 40 senior executives to determine the state of digital disruption.

A comprehensive survey of how legacy systems, processes and skills is affecting large corporations, and how to solve this universal problem.

A future view of the world in 2020 through the eyes of a Londoner.

Interviews with CEOs and Chairs of FTSE100 companies illustrate the difficulties and challenges associated with commercial innovation.

IT consumerisation has heralded in a new era of consumer power and influence over products and services.

Deep seated Asian values bring a new dimension to industrialisation and productivity through lean thinking.

A survey conducted in 2016 regarding enterprise application management, and involving over 100 IT directors in the UK and USA.

This is a survey of CIO opinion regarding  multi-sourcing and associated service integration and management (SIAM).

Rational Proposals for Uncertain Times by Roger Camrass

In The Atomic Corporation the authors' revolutionary theory is put to the test. Looking across all sectors of business, including retail banking, financial services, telecommunications, IT and consultancy, carbon-based corporations (oil and gas companies), and consumer products companies.

As time goes by, World War II becomes a fading memory that future generations will only discover in history books. But for the individual soldiers who fought a long and enduring campaign against the Nazis, such epoch-making times can never lose their vivid texture.

In The Atomic Corporation the authors' revolutionary theory is put to the test. Looking across all sectors of business, including retail banking, financial services, telecommunications, IT and consultancy, carbon-based corporations (oil and gas companies), and consumer products companies.

As the era of ubiquitous digital connectivity approaches, large organisations will blow apart only to reform in a variety of new structures.

In the new digital era the traditional role of the CIO is likely to change.

A review of the revolution taking place in IT services (an MBA course delivered annually at ESADE Business School).